Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil

Flattening the curves: on-off lock-down strategies for COVID-19 with an application to Brazil

Blog Article

Abstract The current COVID-19 pandemic is affecting different countries in different ways.The assortment of reporting techniques alongside other issues, such as underreporting and budgetary constraints, makes predicting the spread and lethality of the virus a challenging task.This work attempts to gain a better understanding of how COVID-19 will affect one of the least lutron rrst-8ans-wh studied countries, namely Brazil.

Currently, several Brazilian states are in a state of lock-down.However, there is political pressure for this type of measures to be lifted.This work considers the impact that such a termination would have on how the virus evolves locally.

This was done by extending the SEIR model with an on / off strategy.Given the simplicity of SEIR we also attempted to pot drum gain more insight by developing a neural regressor.We chose to employ features that current clinical studies have pinpointed has having a connection to the lethality of COVID-19.

We discuss how this data can be processed in order to obtain a robust assessment.